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TIMING BELT CUMULATIVE FATIGUE PROBLEM

Table of Contents

  1. Description

  2. Limit State Function

  3. Random Variables

  4. Analysis

  5. Results

  6. Reference


Description:

A timing belt is a synchronous drive component in which one side of the belt is formed into teeth that mesh with cam and crank sprockets as part of the cam drive system of an internal combustion engine (see Figure 1). The function of the timing belt is to provide stable engine timing for efficient starting and operation by controlling the opening and closing of the cylinder intake and exhaust valves. The durability and reliability of the belt depends on its resistance to the primary failure mode of vibratory tooth shear fatigue. The belt fatigue life, L, may be calculated using the equation in the limit-state section.

 

Figure  1 — Timing Belt Illustration

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 Limit-State Function

( 1)

 

where

 L = Belt life and ai , bi and ci = constants as defined here:

 i

ai

bi

ci 

di

      1

        0.420

         31.4

       0.0641

   0.000199

2

0.178

71.3

0.0476

0.000201

3

0.083

49.9

0.0495

0.000201

4

0.009

16.9

0.0825

0.000201

5

0.012

23.2

0.0845

0.000201

6

0.209

182.3

0.0583

0.000195

7

0.032

38.3

0.0622

0.000195

8

0.018

24.6

0.0651

0.000205

9

0.017

27.4

0.0728

0.000205

10

0.018

39.2

0.0981

0.000203

11

0.004

9.6

0.1120

0.000203

F: Miner’s Rule constant

A: Arrhenius’ Law constant

a  = X3: Material slope

q: Material intercept

W: Rotative speed

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Random Variables:

X1 = F ~ Lognormal (m=1.0, s=0.08)

X2 = A ~ Lognormal (m=5000, s=300)

X3 = a ~ Normal (m=2, s=0.2)

X4 = q ~ Normal (m=9, s=0.9)

X5 = W ~ Normal (m=600, s=33)

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Analysis:

Anal1:     Inverse Probability Analysis to identify the level of  limit-state function defined in Eq. 1 for Pf 1 = 0.999999 by FORM/SORM.

Anal2:     Perform Probability Analysis with belt fatigue life L £ L(x*), where x* is the MPP obtained from Anal1 to verify the result of Anal1 using FORM/SORM.

Anal3:    CDF Analysis of belt fatigue life from 000001 to 0.999999 by FORM/SORM

Case1: Input the bound of CDF.

Case2: Input individual probability ranged from 000001 to 0.999999.

Anal4:    CDF Analysis of belt fatigue life from b1 = -4 to 4 using FORM/SORM

Anal5:    CDF Analysis of belt fatigue life from g=1000 to g=7.85e+6

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 Results:

Anal1:

  target first-order reliability index ....btt=-4.7534259E+00

          >>>>>>>>> MPP Information <<<<<<<<<<

g(x)-g_init=g_0 .........................g_0=     7.8502687E+06 

variable 

names 

linearization-point 

directional 

cosine in u-space 

x-space 

u-space 

MinerC

2.28526E+00

1.52674E+00

-0.32119

ArrhenC

4.95251E+03

-1.29241E-01

0.02698

Mslope

1.98748E+00

-6.25834E-02

0.01317

Minter

1.30489E+01

4.49883E+00

-0.94644

speed

5.97897E+02

-6.37330E-02

0.01343

 reliability index ....................……...b =    -4.7534259E+00

1st-order failure probability ....... pf1=        0.999999000008089    

 1st-order reliability .................1 - pf1=     9.9999191E-07

  Second-Order Results

generalized reliability index.....betag=      -4.7540443E+00

second-order failure probability. pf2=        9.9999900E-01

second-order reliability .........1 - pf2=  9.969444945134853E-007 


 No. of g-functions called                    =      44
 No. of derivatives of g called              =       2

 Anal2:

  g(x)-g_init=g_0 ......................g_init=      7.8502687E+06

reliability index ..................……... b =      -4.753426

variable 

names 

linearization-point 

directional 

cosine in u-space 

x-space 

u-space 

MinerC

2.28410E+00

1.52602E+00

-0.32104

ArrhenC

4.95269E+03

-1.28604E-01

0.02705

Mslope

1.98748E+00

-6.25865E-02

0.01317

Minter

1.30492E+01

4.49909E+00

-0.94649

speed

5.97896E+02

-6.37685E-02

0.01342

  reliability index ...................……….b =   -4.7534259E+00

 1st-order failure probability ..…... pf1=       0.999999000007932    

 1st-order reliability ..................1 - pf1=    9.9999207E-07

 

Second-Order Results:

 

generalized reliability index .........betag= -4.7540443E+00

second-order failure probability ...... pf2= 9.9999900E-01

 second-order reliability …….......1 - pf2=  9.969446449487052E-007


No. of g-functions called         =      77
 No. of derivatives of g called   =       4

 Anal3:

Case 1:

lower bound of 1st-order failure probability = 1.0000000E-06

upper bound of 1st-order failure probability = 9.9999900E-01 

***** SUMMARY OF CDF ANALYSIS ***** 

 

  First/Second-Order CDF of Limit-State Function 27

Number of points in each CDF curve: 18 

1st-order b 

1st-order Pf 

2nd-order b 

2nd-order Pf 

G-Value 

4.7534259E+00

9.9999191E-07

4.7527904E+00

1.0031496E-06

7.1516402E-03

-2.7464786E+00

9.9698806E-01

-2.7546539E+00

9.9706228E-01

9.6916824E+04

-3.0630389E+00

9.9890449E-01

-3.0723698E+00

9.9893816E-01

1.9383362E+05

-3.2482162E+00

9.9941935E-01

-3.2300208E+00

9.9938109E-01

2.9075129E+05

-3.3829871E+00

9.9964149E-01

-3.3815337E+00

9.9963959E-01

3.8766759E+05

-3.4815093E+00

9.9975070E-01

-3.4854574E+00

9.9975435E-01

4.8458432E+05

-3.5647774E+00

9.9981792E-01

-3.5654476E+00

9.9981838E-01

5.8150139E+05

-3.6384943E+00

9.9986288E-01

-3.6466965E+00

9.9986718E-01

6.7841757E+05

-3.6961602E+00

9.9989056E-01

-3.6990916E+00

9.9989181E-01

7.7533499E+05

-3.7629522E+00

9.9991604E-01

-3.7564127E+00

9.9991382E-01

8.7225203E+05

-4.0665125E+00

9.9997614E-01

-4.0671319E+00

9.9997620E-01

1.7445042E+06

-4.2540089E+00

9.9998950E-01

-4.2534279E+00

9.9998947E-01

2.6167562E+06

-4.3830733E+00

9.9999415E-01

-4.3836926E+00

9.9999417E-01

3.4890083E+06

-4.4849969E+00

9.9999635E-01

-4.4856492E+00

9.9999637E-01

4.3612604E+06

-4.5682496E+00

9.9999754E-01

-4.5688694E+00

9.9999755E-01

5.2335125E+06

-4.6386510E+00

9.9999825E-01

-4.6393708E+00

9.9999825E-01

6.1057646E+06

-4.7003328E+00

9.9999870E-01

-4.7006290E+00

9.9999870E-01

6.9780166E+06

-4.7534259E+00

9.9999900E-01

-4.7540437E+00

9.9999900E-01

7.8502687E+06

***** SUMMARY OF PDF ANALYSIS *****

  First/Second-Order PDF of Limit-State Function 27 

1st-order b 

1st-order Pf 

2nd-order b 

2nd-order Pf 

G-Value 

-6.3852997E+01

3.1596342E-04

-2.0727900E+00

1.0287805E-05

7.1516402E-03

-4.7118093E-06

4.3263800E-08

-5.7403445E-04

5.1535808E-06

9.6916824E+04

-2.3559240E-06

8.6248378E-09

-3.3626085E-06

1.1962846E-08

1.9383362E+05

-1.5706177E-06

3.2053825E-09

-1.6716449E-06

3.6186735E-09

2.9075129E+05

-1.1598660E-06

1.5140989E-09

-1.4679132E-06

1.9256691E-09

3.8766759E+05

-9.4237004E-07

8.7722301E-10

-1.0046387E-06

9.2241345E-10

4.8458432E+05

-8.5034768E-07

5.9030731E-10

-8.4054387E-07

5.8210892E-10

5.8150139E+05

-6.7188378E-07

3.5765962E-10

-7.3325608E-07

3.7883999E-10

6.7841757E+05

-5.8898141E-07

2.5376568E-10

-5.6447524E-07

2.4058510E-10

7.7533499E+05

-5.2353888E-07

1.7583103E-10

-2.5296588E-07

8.7073550E-11

8.7225203E+05

-2.6176931E-07

2.6789721E-11

-4.2483863E-07

4.3369016E-11

1.7445042E+06

-1.7451313E-07

8.1867821E-12

-2.1895831E-07

1.0297218E-11

2.6167562E+06

-1.3088584E-07

3.5165358E-12

-1.4743565E-07

3.9504444E-12

3.4890083E+06

-1.1127210E-07

1.9025532E-12

-1.1373051E-07

1.9389059E-12

4.3612604E+06

-8.7257411E-08

1.0234990E-12

-9.2492407E-08

1.0818357E-12

5.2335125E+06

-8.6549176E-08

7.3417198E-13

-7.8312245E-08

6.6208579E-13

6.1057646E+06

-6.5053282E-08

4.1373029E-13

-6.7731499E-08

4.3016421E-13

6.9780166E+06

-5.8171076E-08 2.8784760E-13

-6.9680362E-0

3.4378783E-13 7.8502687E+06

 No. of g-functions called        =     978
 No. of derivatives of g called  =      32 

 Case 2:

target first-order probability values:  

1.000000000000000E-006
1.000000000000000E-0
1.000000000000000E-004
1.000000000000000E-003
1.000000000000000E-0
0.100000000000000
0.900000000000000
0.9900000000000
0.999000000000000
0.999900000000000
0.9999900000000
0.999999000000000
***** SUMMARY OF CDF ANALYSIS ***** 

 First/Second-Order CDF of Limit-State Function 27

Number of points in each CDF curve: 12 

1st-order b 

1st-order Pf 

2nd-order b 

2nd-order Pf 

G-Value 

4.7534259E+00

9.9999191E-07

4.7527904E+00

1.0031496E-06

7.1516402E-03

4.2648922E+00

9.9999366E-06

4.2642577E+00

1.0028458E-05

2.0843757E-02

3.7190178E+00

9.9999482E-05

3.7183843E+00

1.0025105E-04

6.8876977E-02

3.0902332E+00

9.9999710E-04

3.0896006E+00

1.0021320E-03

2.7290722E-01

2.3263486E+00

9.9999815E-03

2.3257175E+00

1.0016832E-02

1.4535445E+00

1.2815519E+00

9.9999941E-02

1.2809228E+00

1.0011045E-01

1.4320987E+01

-1.2815519E+00

9.0000006E-01

-1.2821761E+00

9.0010949E-01

3.9204851E+03

-2.3263486E+00

9.9000002E-01

-2.3269708E+00

9.9001657E-01

3.8626055E+04

-3.0902332E+00

9.9900000E-01

-3.0908539E+00

9.9900209E-01

2.0572601E+05

-3.7190178E+00

9.9990000E-01

-3.7196375E+00

9.9990025E-01

8.1512750E+05

-4.2648922E+00

9.9999000E-01

-4.2655109E+00

9.9999003E-01

2.6935120E+06

-4.7534259E+00

9.9999900E-01

-4.7540437E+00

9.9999900E-01

7.8502687E+06

***** SUMMARY OF PDF ANALYSIS ***** 

First/Second-Order PDF of Limit-State Function 27 

1st-order

1st-order Pf 

2nd-order

2nd-order Pf 

G-Value 

-6.3852997E+01

3.1596342E-04

-1.3280794E+02

6.5916093E-04

7.1516402E-03

-2.1908426E+01

9.8121398E-04

-3.5803879E+01

1.6078957E-03

2.0843757E-02

-6.6299977E+00

2.6244583E-03

-9.9196811E+00

3.9359274E-03

6.8876977E-02

-1.6732959E+00

5.6341229E-03

-2.1228240E+00

7.1617049E-03

2.7290722E-01

-3.1416645E-01

8.3731953E-03

-2.6431647E-01

7.0549369E-03

1.4535445E+00

-3.1887150E-02

5.5961393E-03

-1.2931045E-03

2.2712057E-04

1.4320987E+01

-1.1647967E-04

2.0441979E-05

-1.3143153E-04

2.3047557E-05

3.9204851E+03

-1.1822521E-05

3.1509500E-07

-1.8413145E-05

4.9003907E-07

3.8626055E+04

-2.2197374E-06

7.4740360E-09

-3.7875268E-06

1.2728469E-08

2.0572601E+05

-5.6022898E-07

2.2176443E-10

-1.0055233E-06

3.9711602E-10

8.1512750E+05

-1.6954011E-07

7.5932030E-12

-3.1426291E-07

1.4037816E-11

2.6935120E+06

-5.8171076E-08

2.8784760E-13

-3.5277352E-07

1.7405082E-12

7.8502687E+06

 

No. of g-functions called        =     462
 No. of derivatives of g called  =      13 

 Anal4:

 lower bound of 1st-order reliability index     =-4.0000000E+00

upper bound of 1st-order reliability index   = 4.0000000E+00 

***** SUMMARY OF CDF ANALYSIS *****

 First/Second-Order CDF of Limit-State Function 27

Number of points in each CDF curve: 18 

1st-order b 

1st-order Pf 

2nd-order b 

2nd-order Pf 

G-Value 

4.0000000E+00

3.1671242E-05

3.9993660E+00

3.1756390E-05

3.7228428E-02

-1.9930557E+00

9.7687232E-01

-1.9932156E+00

9.7688104E-01

1.8618232E+04

-2.3096176E+00

9.8954533E-01

-2.2613085E+00

9.8812990E-01

3.7236618E+04

-2.4947909E+00

9.9369843E-01

-2.4954114E+00

9.9370943E-01

5.5854618E+04

-2.6261752E+00

9.9568248E-01

-2.6276279E+00

9.9570087E-01

7.4472804E+04

-2.7280848E+00

9.9681484E-01

-2.7289104E+00

9.9682279E-01

9.3091002E+04

-2.8113510E+00

9.9753330E-01

-2.8120179E+00

9.9753841E-01

1.1170920E+05

-2.8817516E+00

9.9802264E-01

-2.8823874E+00

9.9802662E-01

1.3032739E+05

-2.9427354E+00

9.9837337E-01

-2.9433576E+00

9.9837663E-01

1.4894559E+05

-2.9965269E+00

9.9863463E-01

-2.9971512E+00

9.9863742E-01

1.6756378E+05

-3.3130872E+00

9.9953864E-01

-3.3136940E+00

9.9953964E-01

3.3512752E+05

-3.4982632E+00

9.9976585E-01

-3.4988776E+00

9.9976639E-01

5.0269126E+05

-3.6296477E+00

9.9985810E-01

-3.6302668E+00

9.9985844E-01

6.7025500E+05

-3.7315575E+00

9.9990485E-01

-3.7321776E+00

9.9990508E-01

8.3781874E+05

-3.8148270E+00

9.9993186E-01

-3.8154650E+00

9.9993204E-01

1.0053825E+06

-3.8852245E+00

9.9994888E-01

-3.8858953E+00

9.9994902E-01

1.1729462E+06

-3.9462084E+00

9.9996030E-01

-3.9468353E+00

9.9996040E-01

1.3405100E+06

-4.0000000E+00

9.9996833E-01

-4.0006193E+00

9.9996841E-01

1.5080737E+06

***** SUMMARY OF PDF ANALYSIS ***** 

 First/Second-Order PDF of Limit-State Function 27 

1st-order b 

1st-order Pf 

2nd-order b 

2nd-order Pf 

G-Value 

-1.2266273E+01

1.6415980E-03

-3.9105193E-01

5.2467456E-05

3.7228428E-02

-2.4527419E-05

1.3427471E-06

-4.8487114E-04

2.6535684E-05

1.8618232E+04

-1.2263768E-05

3.3978027E-07

-1.4606657E-05

4.5193393E-07

3.7236618E+04

-8.1758248E-06

1.4518481E-07

-1.1467507E-05

2.0332286E-07

5.5854618E+04

-6.1318691E-06

7.7782647E-08

-6.6165227E-06

8.3610776E-08

7.4472804E+04

-4.8191533E-06

4.6534395E-08

-5.1220510E-06

4.9347923E-08

9.3091002E+04

-4.0401626E-06

3.0977293E-08

-4.2244196E-06

3.2329376E-08

1.1170920E+05

-3.4710691E-06

2.1780896E-08

-3.5939818E-06

2.2510881E-08

1.3032739E+05

-3.0465966E-06

1.6006519E-08

-3.1278132E-06

1.6403160E-08

1.4894559E+05

-2.7252748E-06

1.2204434E-08

-1.3974952E-06

6.2466212E-09

1.6756378E+05

-1.3626390E-06

2.2478326E-09

-2.0462682E-06

3.3687793E-09

3.3512752E+05

-9.0842706E-07

7.9760101E-10

-1.0857845E-06

9.5127428E-10

5.0269126E+05

-6.8131988E-07

3.7453202E-10

-7.5455273E-07

4.1385815E-10

6.7025500E+05

-5.4505614E-07

2.0591118E-10

-5.8269446E-07

2.1962137E-10

8.3781874E+05

-4.6907891E-07

1.2942934E-10

-4.7633582E-07

1.3111216E-10

1.0053825E+06

-3.8754427E-07

8.1545575E-11

-4.0334034E-07

8.4648405E-11

1.1729462E+06

-3.3859054E-07

5.6110787E-11

-3.4997267E-07

5.7853689E-11

1.3405100E+06

-3.0280893E-07

4.0524988E-11

-3.5794428E-07

4.7785230E-11

1.5080737E+06

 

No. of g-functions called       =     870
 No. of derivatives of g called  =      29

Anal5:

lower bound of g level                             = 1000

upper bound of g level                            = 7.85E+06  

***** SUMMARY OF CDF ANALYSIS ***** 

 First/Second-Order CDF of Limit-State Function 27

Number of points in each CDF curve: 17 

1st-order b 

1st-order Pf 

2nd-order b 

2nd-order Pf 

G-Value 

-6.5760232E-01

7.4460315E-01

-6.6558175E-01

7.4716068E-01

9.9999919E+02

-2.8043670E+00

9.9747923E-01

-2.8049902E+00

9.9748409E-01

1.1001389E+05

-3.1188469E+00

9.9909220E-01

-3.1194584E+00

9.9909408E-01

2.1902778E+05

-3.3033281E+00

9.9952228E-01

-3.2882029E+00

9.9949585E-01

3.2804223E+05

-3.4343636E+00

9.9970303E-01

-3.4354435E+00

9.9970421E-01

4.3705553E+05

-3.5360656E+00

9.9979693E-01

-3.5367379E+00

9.9979745E-01

5.4606944E+05

-3.6191912E+00

9.9985224E-01

-3.6199365E+00

9.9985266E-01

6.5508332E+05

-3.6894923E+00

9.9988765E-01

-3.6901324E+00

9.9988793E-01

7.6409722E+05

-3.7504014E+00

9.9991172E-01

-3.7510213E+00

9.9991194E-01

8.7311111E+05

-4.0667005E+00

9.9997616E-01

-4.0672774E+00

9.9997622E-01

1.7452222E+06

-4.2517894E+00

9.9998940E-01

-4.2524076E+00

9.9998943E-01

2.6173333E+06

-4.3831304E+00

9.9999415E-01

-4.3837504E+00

9.9999417E-01

3.4894444E+06

-4.4850278E+00

9.9999635E-01

-4.4856823E+00

9.9999637E-01

4.3615556E+06

-4.5682630E+00

9.9999754E-01

-4.5688833E+00

9.9999755E-01

5.2336667E+06

-4.6386514E+00

9.9999825E-01

-4.6394231E+00

9.9999825E-01

6.1057778E+06

-4.6997153E+00

9.9999870E-01

-4.7002951E+00

9.9999870E-01

6.9778889E+06

-4.7534102E+00

9.9999900E-01

-4.7551491E+00

9.9999901E-01

7.8499991E+06

 

***** SUMMARY OF PDF ANALYSIS ***** 

First/Second-Order PDF of Limit-State Function 27 

1st-order b 

1st-order Pf 

2nd-order b 

2nd-order Pf 

G-Value 

-4.5665685E-04

1.4675629E-04

-7.1829953E-06

2.2962524E-06

9.9999919E+02

-4.1509065E-06

3.2456686E-08

-1.4803753E-04

1.1555105E-06

1.1001389E+05

-2.0849307E-06

6.4234110E-09

-3.0006722E-06

9.2270802E-09

2.1902778E+05

-1.3920735E-06

2.3717375E-09

-1.5626278E-06

2.7983958E-09

3.2804223E+05

-1.0448509E-06

1.1448393E-09

-1.2671712E-06

1.3832942E-09

4.3705553E+05

-8.3991330E-07

6.4563567E-10

-8.8789906E-07

6.8090117E-10

5.4606944E+05

-6.9005813E-07

3.9398784E-10

-7.2883064E-07

4.1500391E-10

6.5508332E+05

-5.9300179E-07

2.6186719E-10

-6.1715905E-07

2.7189203E-10

7.6409722E+05

-5.2302270E-07

1.8413813E-10

-2.5618607E-07

8.9984780E-11

8.7311111E+05

-2.6166193E-07

2.6758271E-11

-4.3542367E-07

4.4423272E-11

1.7452222E+06

-1.7447465E-07

8.2626018E-12

-2.1788407E-07

1.0291255E-11

2.6173333E+06

-1.3086987E-07

3.5152268E-12

-1.4853805E-07

3.9789739E-12

3.4894444E+06

-1.1140839E-07

1.9046192E-12

-1.1371909E-07

1.9384240E-12

4.3615556E+06

-8.7255714E-08

1.0234162E-12

-9.2507257E-08

1.0819411E-12

5.2336667E+06

-8.8945491E-08

7.5449780E-13

-7.8189001E-08

6.6088358E-13

6.1057778E+06

-6.5134437E-08

4.1545056E-13

-6.8086708E-08

4.3309925E-13

6.9778889E+06

-5.8860962E-08

2.9128322E-13

-7.1825529E-08

3.5251405E-13

7.8499991E+06

 

 No. of g-functions called       =    1053
 No. of derivatives of g called  =      42

 Back to Top

Reference:

R.H. Salzman and R.A. Fahlberg, “Timing Belt Key Life Test Procedures.” Ford Motor Company and Gates Rubber Company internal report, July 11, 1996.

 

 

Last Updated 02/08/10

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